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Backgammon – Luck or probability?

By M. Petersen Some people believe that success in Backgammon is just a question of luck, but if you view the game mathematically, you will discover that a big part of the game consists of calculating probabilities.
It is about not standing alone, but if you have to stand alone with a piece, then the object is to find the position on the board with the lowest probability of your adversary reaching.
For example: If I hit you, then I must not stand alone on the point, where you can reach me with seven pips, because the most probable throw with two dice is 7. You can make it with 6-1, 5-2 and 4-3.
Similarly, there are a lot of other fixed rules concerning how to move your pieces with certain throws. You can do it by practising or by using the library, where you can find a whole range of books about Backgammon game and how to calculate the probability of winning a fortune at PLAY65.
Of course you can also be one of those who base their game on pure luck. Very few succeed that way. Most ordinary people get the most out of it by using probability calculation.
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